Navigating Trump’s Second Term: The Future of U.S.-Africa Trade and Supply Chains

Navigating Trump’s Second Term: The Future of U.S.-Africa Trade and Supply Chains
January 24, 2025

Donald Trump’s potential return to the White House introduces a blend of challenges and opportunities for U.S.-Africa trade and supply chains. Rooted in the “America First” agenda, his administration’s focus on critical minerals, bilateral trade agreements, and countering China’s influence could reshape the U.S.-Africa trade landscape and influence supply chain strategies across the continent (S&P Global Commodity Insights, 2024).

Africa’s growing significance as a supplier of critical resources and a burgeoning consumer market necessitates careful navigation of these evolving relations. This article explores how Trump’s second term could redefine U.S.-Africa trade, focusing on critical minerals, trade agreements, geopolitical competition, and supply chain resilience.

The Cornerstone of U.S.-Africa Trade Relations

The U.S.-Africa trade relationship has evolved significantly over the years, buoyed by initiatives such as the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) a been the cornerstone of U.S. efforts to cultivate deeper economic relations with sub-Saharan Africa since 2000 and the Prosper Africa Initiative. Prosper Africa is another US initiative that aims to increase trade and investment between the US and Africa. Launched by the Trump administration in 2019, Prosper Africa is a Presidential-level national security initiative aimed at strengthening the strategic and economic partnership between the U.S. and Africa by catalyzing transformative two-way trade and investment flows. These programs aim to drive mutual economic growth, enhance supply chain resilience, and capitalize on Africa’s growing economic potential.

Prosper Africa (2024) reported that AGOA has been pivotal in advancing economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa, enabling African nations to export nearly $10 billion in goods to the U.S. in 2023, with $9.7 billion coming from AGOA-eligible imports. These include $4.2 billion in crude oil, $1.1 billion in apparel, and over $900 million in agricultural products. However, smaller economies struggle to fully leverage AGOA’s benefits, underscoring the need for broader inclusivity.

The Prosper Africa Initiative has further strengthened trade and investment ties. By 2024, the U.S. government had closed 1,695 deals worth $63.5 billion across 41 African countries. In the first half of 2024 alone, 401 deals valued at $32.5 billion were facilitated. DW News (2025) reported that strategic investments like the Lobito Corridor Project—a 1,300-km railway linking Zambia, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Angola—highlight U.S. efforts to secure critical mineral supply chains for renewable energy technologies and electric vehicles.

Critical Minerals and U.S.-Africa Relations

Africa’s reserves of critical minerals—such as cobalt, copper, and lithium—are vital to U.S. strategies for renewable energy supply chains. During Trump’s first term, initiatives like the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) and the Energy Governance Resource Initiative (ERGI) were launched to reduce reliance on China for critical minerals (Sadden, 2024).

The Lobito Corridor, backed by a $553 million U.S. investment, is a strategic project linking Zambia and the Democratic Republic of Congo to Angola’s Port of Lobito. This railway ensures westward mineral exports to U.S. and allied markets, reducing dependence on Chinese-controlled routes. Experts anticipate that Trump’s second term may emphasize exclusive U.S. access to these resources, potentially creating friction with African partners (Cook, 2025).

Reevaluation of AGOA and Trade Agreements

AGOA, which provides duty-free access to U.S. markets for African exports, faces renewal in 2025. In 2023, it facilitated $9.7 billion in African exports to the U.S., including crude oil, apparel, and agricultural products. While Trump is unlikely to dismantle AGOA, he may favor bilateral agreements over multilateral frameworks, rewarding countries aligned with U.S. geopolitical interests (U.S. Trade Representative, 2024).

Kenya, for example, may become a key partner in renewed free trade agreement negotiations. However, Trump’s proposed tariffs and stricter import regulations could disrupt supply chains, particularly for industries reliant on U.S. markets (Treiber, 2025).

Geopolitical Competition and Strategic Investments

China’s extensive investments in Africa’s mining and infrastructure sectors have challenged U.S. influence. Trump’s administration is expected to intensify efforts to counter Beijing’s dominance through targeted investments and strategic partnerships (Sadden, 2024). However, a transactional approach focusing on countering China might overshadow broader developmental cooperation.

Programs like the Lobito Corridor align with U.S. strategic interests and are likely to continue. However, initiatives addressing terrorism and regional security may be deprioritized, with greater emphasis placed on economic partnerships (Dizolele, 2025).

Challenges to Supply Chain Resilience

Trump’s trade policies may introduce new complexities to global supply chains. Increased tariffs and stringent import regulations could impact African exporters, especially for goods with ties to China. Rising logistics and inventory costs may further challenge African exporters, impacting competitiveness in global markets.

Key Supply Chain Implications

1. Diversification: Increased investments in African infrastructure could reduce reliance on raw material exports, creating local jobs.
2. Tariff Risks: Stricter trade rules may disrupt African exports reliant on U.S. markets.
3. Value Addition: Prioritizing local refining and manufacturing capacities is critical for equitable partnerships.
4. Risk Management: Companies should adopt strategies like nearshoring, warehousing, and contingency planning to mitigate disruptions.

Social and Cultural Impacts

Trump’s policies on LGBTQ+ rights and immigration could influence U.S.-Africa relations in complex ways. While conservative African leaders may align with certain U.S. social policies, stricter immigration rules could strain people-to-people ties and limit opportunities for African youth in the U.S. (DW, 2025).

Recommendations for Navigating Trump’s Second Term

To foster resilient trade and supply chain relations, African nations and U.S. businesses should:

1. Diversify Partnerships: Engage with multiple stakeholders to reduce dependency on a single partner.
2. Promote Value Addition: Focus on local processing of critical minerals to maximize economic benefits.
3. Adopt Risk Management Strategies: Build supply chain resilience through nearshoring and warehousing.
4. Leverage AGOA Renewal: Advocate for an extended AGOA framework supporting African industrialization.
5. Strengthen Regional Collaboration: Utilize platforms like the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) to bolster collective bargaining power.

Conclusion

Trump’s second term presents both opportunities and challenges for U.S.-Africa trade and supply chains. While strategic investments in critical minerals and countering China’s influence align with U.S. interests, a transactional approach may strain partnerships. By adopting proactive strategies and fostering mutual interests, the U.S. and Africa can navigate the complexities of this new era, unlocking potential for economic growth and stability.

African nations must balance strategic competition with developmental priorities, ensuring partnerships with the U.S. deliver shared benefits while addressing the continent’s unique challenges in a rapidly evolving global landscape.

References

1. U.S. Trade Representative. (2024). 2024 Biennial Report on Implementation of the African Growth and Opportunity Act.
2. Prosper Africa. (2024). New Data Shows Significant Growth in U.S.-Africa Trade and Investment Engagement.
3. Pecquet, J. 2025. Trump halts Biden’s Africa diaspora engagement. The Africa Report.
4. Oti, MN. 2025. What Donald Trump’s return to power in US means for Africa. DW News.
5. Center for Strategic and International Studies. (2025). Experts React: The Challenges and Opportunities for the Trump Administration in Africa.
6. Brownman, N. 2024. Huge impacts on supply chains likely during next Trump presidency. Supply Chain Brain.
7. Sadden, E. (2024). Experts consider US approach to Africa’s critical minerals under Trump. S&P Global Commodity Insights.
8. Cook, T. (2025). The threat of resiliency and sustainability in global supply chain management: Expectations for 2025. Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals.
9. Treiber, L. (2025). Trump II: An Opportunity to Create a Strategic Economic Partnership with Africa. Center for Strategic and International Studies.
10. Dizolele, M. P. & Others. (2025). Experts React: The Challenges and Opportunities for the Trump Administration in Africa. Center for Strategic and International Studies.